Qu'est-ce que Survivorship Bias ?
Definition
Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on outcomes that passed a selection filter (the survivors) while overlooking those that didn't — because failures are less visible. In recruitment, it leads to false conclusions about what predicts success because the sample of observed outcomes is systematically skewed toward successes.
In practice
Classic examples in recruitment: "All our best performers went to top universities" (ignoring the many top-university graduates who failed) or "Every successful candidate in this role was extroverted" (ignoring introverts who succeeded in similar roles elsewhere). Survivorship bias also affects how we interpret successful companies' hiring practices — "Google's hiring process made them successful" when many other factors were at play. In a broader context, it explains why inspirational "dropout entrepreneur" stories mislead — they're the tiny fraction who succeeded; the vast majority of dropouts are invisible. In hiring, tracking both successful and unsuccessful hires against their selection-time characteristics is the only way to build genuinely predictive models.
Key takeaway
When defining your "ideal candidate profile," track failures as carefully as successes — the pattern of who doesn't work out is just as informative as who does.
Définitions connexes
Confirmation Bias
Cognitive tendency to seek, interpret and recall information in a way that confirms one's pre-existing beliefs or first impressions about a candidate.
Overconfidence Bias
Tendency for recruiters to overestimate the accuracy and reliability of their own judgement of candidates, particularly after an interview.
CV-free recruitment
A recruitment approach that evaluates candidates on their actual skills rather than their academic or professional background.